Tampilkan postingan dengan label Betting. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Betting. Tampilkan semua postingan

Minggu, 17 September 2006

Michelle Wie in PGA Tour Events? I'm all for it!

Last week, Michelle Wie made her sixth attempt to make the cut in a PGA Tour event at the 84 Lumber Classic. Like all of her previous attempts, she came up short. With each passing failure, more and more people are calling for an end to her exercise in futility.

However, I remain one of the few who wants to see Michelle continue to play in PGA Tour events. For one, I couldn't give a rat's arse about these tournaments if she didn't enter. The John Deere Classic and the 84 Lumber Classic? These tournaments are anything but classic. Take away Michelle Wie and these events wouldn't even register in my consciousness. At a minimum, these events aren't any less interesting without Wie.

Second, it's not like Michelle is forcing herself into these tournaments. She is invited to play via a sponsor's exemption. Sponsors pay the big bucks and in return are allowed to give several spots in the field to whomever they want. If they choose to give a spot to Wie or Dora the Explorer, it's their prerogative. You can't blame Wie for accepting an invite. Heck, I'd accept any and all invites that were sent my way. If people don't want Wie in these events, they should take issue with the sponsors. But, since these "minor" events are the only ones that would invite Wie, who cares?

But the primary reason that I want Michelle to play in PGA Tour events is that they are tremendous money-making opportunities. Every time she tees it up against the men, bookies are accepting proposition bets on whether she will make the cut. At the 84 Lumber, my bookie was offering a money line of -800 on Wie missing the cut. In other words, you win $100 if you are willing to lay $800.

Sounds like long odds, right? But not long enough if you consider the real odds. The golf course at Nemacolin Woodlands stretches over 7,500-yards and hosts a strong field. Michelle Wie had an ice cube chance in hell of making the cut. But those are the same chances for any woman. According to Robert Allenby, "...if Annika Sorenstam can't make the cut at [the 2003] Colonial, on the course that plays shortest on tour, then no chick in the world is going to make the cut on this tour."

If you could lay $800 to win $100 that the sun would rise tomorrow, you'd take it all day, correct? Well that's about the same bet as Wie missing the cut at the 84 Lumber. If you do the math, that's a 12.5% return over 2 days! By my calculations, that's an effective annual rate of over 200,000,000,000% (please correct me if I'm wrong)! I challenge you to find a better investment.

So, if you like easy money, you should support Wie's desire to play in PGA Tour events. The next time that she does, get yourself to Vegas or a local Ladbrokes and bet that she'll miss the cut. While you're at it, betting that next year is another sure bet. There's money for the taking!

Minggu, 06 Agustus 2006

Michelle Wie Losing Was a Sure Bet

If you had heard about a 16-year-old boy who placed 3rd at the Masters, 5th at the U.S. Open and 3rd at the PGA Championship within the same year, you'd be pretty amazed wouldn't you?

Well that's the male-equivalent of what Michelle Wie accomplished this year. Unfortunately, has effectively numbed people to her achievements, no matter how impressive they may be. Some have even been critical. This kid could cure cancer while walking on water and it still wouldn't satisfy some people.

But sometimes, you can use such irrational expectations to your advantage. Earlier this year, my online bookie took action on the number of majors that Michelle Wie would win in 2006. The Wie hype actually convinced people that she could win majors already! While I think Michelle is a tremendous talent, I just think that it's too early for her to win in the big leagues, let alone the majors.

Back in February, my bookie offered 1-2 odds on Wie not winning any majors. That was just an offer too good to be true. In my mind, that was a guaranteed 50% return over about 6 months. With the stock market going sideways and the real estate market topping out, was there a better investment? I just wish that I had bet the farm instead of a measly 20 clams:


It just goes to show you that it pays to still listen to Public Enemy's classic, "Don't Believe the Hype!"

P.S. FYI, I've added the video of the to the original post. Enjoy!